Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:27:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcd3f…829a sports 594 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$366 (-8%) realized −$601 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%289W / 300L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day47.9pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$80
14 days−$478
30 days−$600
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$508
other 10% −$79
crypto 1% −$12
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -18.8% -26.5% 52% 40% -17.9%
≤30d 588 -15.4% -23.5% 49% 42% -23.0%
≤90d 589 -15.6% -23.6% 49% 42% -23.0%
all 589 -15.6% -23.6% 49% 42% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 42% -23.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 38% -30.3%
15% -37.6% 31% -37.1%
20% -43.7% 23% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$601
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses289 / 300
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions5
Markets (closed)589 / 594
History coverage32d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day47.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 589 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 69¢ 92¢ $14 $18 +$5 (+34%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score No 76¢ 100¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+31%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Under 87¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+15%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 46¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-48%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Ashlyn Krueger 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko Vitaliy Sachko 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 5.5 Under 79¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 33¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Under 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Indiana Fever vs. Los Angeles Sparks Los Angeles Sparks 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Under 42¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Under 57¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? No 31¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Thunder 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Sho Shimabukuro vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Stefanos Sakellaridis 33¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty: O/U 178.5 Over 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #3 Play-In SAW 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$2 -41%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $23 +$1 +4%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $4 $0 -12%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 13 $34 −$1 -4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $15 +$10 +67%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $8 −$4 -42%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $26 +$4 +16%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 13 $4 +$2 +38%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$4 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $33 −$32 -97%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $34 +$8 +24%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $70 −$37 -53%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $29 +$12 +40%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $5 −$4 -98%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $4 +$2 +46%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $46 +$40 +88%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 +$3 +56%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $8 +$2 +23%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $9 −$8 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$4 +95%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 10 $4 +$5 +107%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $8 +$7 +87%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $5 +$1 +31%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Ilkley: Iryna Shymanovich vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 10 $4 +$2 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 68¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 69¢ $4 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 69¢ $4 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 46¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 69¢ $4 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 76¢ $3 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 76¢ $3 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $3 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $3 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 76¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $3 1h
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Scotland 21¢ $3 24h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 40¢ $3 24h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 42¢ $3 24h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 37¢ $3 24h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 35¢ $3 25h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 35¢ $3 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $4 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 95¢ $4 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $4 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 8¢ $2 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 92¢ $3 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.37 · official $41.76 (match) · 1734 history records