Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:04:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd46…7a35 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$18 (-22%) realized −$11 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$4
other 35% −$25
sports 8% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +29.4% +17.1% 43% 43% -26.0%
≤30d 14 +29.4% +17.1% 43% 43% -26.0%
≤90d 14 +29.4% +17.1% 43% 43% -26.0%
all 14 +29.4% +17.1% 43% 43% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.1% 43% -26.0%
10% +5.9% 43% -33.1%
15% -4.4% 43% -39.5%
20% -13.7% 36% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Memphis Depay: 1+ assists Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$12 +392%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$5 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$7 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Memphis Depay: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Memphis Depay: 1+ assists BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $11 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 3h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.17 · official $3.17 (match) · 35 history records