Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd47…0769 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$50 (-5%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$18
other 24% −$33
politics 10% $0
tech 7% +$1
economics 4% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 67% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 12 -4.4% -13.5% 42% 0% -13.9%
≤90d 14 -3.7% -12.9% 50% 0% -13.1%
all 35 -3.8% -12.9% 43% 3% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 3% -14.5%
10% -21.3% 3% -22.7%
15% -28.9% 0% -30.2%
20% -35.8% 0% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage297d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $9 −$2 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $5 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $34 −$3 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $76 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $52 −$13 -26%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $3 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Jan 31 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 23 $11 $0 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 22 $1 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $73 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $9 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 20 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 18 $6 +$1 +22%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $27 −$1 -4%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 320 and 339 times September 5–12? Sep 09 $33 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $30 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $18 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $5 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $25 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $30 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $18 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $12 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 38h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 63¢ $16 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 63¢ $15 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $31 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 72¢ $30 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $34 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $34 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $34 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $34 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $11 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $24 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $25 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.24 · official $30.24 (match) · 147 history records