Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:37:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CD
0xcd49…6ec5
crypto · 696 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$159 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$205 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$205
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses341 / 353
Open positions2
Markets (closed)694 / 696
History coverage8d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day99.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 694 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$160
14 days−$205
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 48¢ 58¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$8 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$7 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$15 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 589 -5.3% -14.3% 49% 49% -15.9%
≤30d 694 -5.3% -14.4% 49% 49% -15.8%
≤90d 694 -5.3% -14.4% 49% 49% -15.8%
all 694 -5.3% -14.4% 49% 49% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover99.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 49% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 48% -23.9%
15% -30.0% 48% -31.3%
20% -36.9% 47% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.70 · official $2.42 (match) · 1135 history records