Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd4d…3375 weather 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$316 (+4%) realized +$314 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate19%23W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day32.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,252
7 days−$763
14 days−$1,613
30 days−$1,613
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$95
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -14.2% -22.4% 16% 12% -29.8%
≤30d 120 +0.3% -9.2% 19% 14% -36.7%
≤90d 120 +0.3% -9.2% 19% 14% -36.7%
all 120 +0.3% -9.2% 19% 14% -36.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 14% -36.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 13% -42.7%
15% -25.9% 12% -48.3%
20% -33.1% 12% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +101% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$41 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$314
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses23 / 97
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 63
History coverage12d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day32.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? No 93¢ 95¢ $54 $55 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 7? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 14? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 7? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 11? Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 10? Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 9? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 17 Jun 19 $17 −$17 -103%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 7? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on June 8? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 17? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 10? Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on June 9? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 9? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 17? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 15? Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on June 18? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 12? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 18? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 8? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 15? Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 12 Jun 19 $17 −$25 -152%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12? Jun 19 $10 −$26 -258%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 14? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 7? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 16? Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 16 Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 7? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 14? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 13? Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 15? Jun 19 $9 −$22 -246%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on June 13 Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? Jun 19 $4 −$36 -948%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 18? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 14? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 13? Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on June 9? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 8? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 16? Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 16? Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 7? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 14? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on June 11? Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 18? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on June 13? Jun 19 $34 −$36 -106%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on June 11? Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $31 1m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 97¢ $8 21m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 97¢ $8 21m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 97¢ $11 21m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 97¢ $17 21m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $66 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $303 16h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $133 17h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 17h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 17h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $77 17h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 95¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 8¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 9¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 81¢ $19 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 79¢ $12 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 81¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 25¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.48 · official $55.48 (match) · 469 history records