Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd50…9d2d other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate21%10W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 27% +$1
other 27% $0
politics 26% $0
sports 8% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 -7.5% -16.3% 23% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 13 -7.5% -16.3% 23% 0% -9.1%
all 48 -1.7% -11.1% 21% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 2% -9.5%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses10 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage294d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 81¢ 80¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $28 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $15 $0 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $12 $0 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $27 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $2 $0 +3%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $1 $0 +18%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Sep 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 21 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Sep 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Sep 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 18 $1 $0 +7%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $7 $0 -3%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 16 $6 $0 -4%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $30 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $42 2h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $24 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $14 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $6 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $1 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $1 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $19 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $28 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $1 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $31 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $4 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $18 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $8 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $11 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $10 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $30 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $30 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 12d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $4 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.80 · official $12.80 (match) · 150 history records