Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CD 0xcd56…fb5c crypto 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$24 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate59%16W / 11L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$58
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$59
crypto 45% +$37
sports 7% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -44.7% -50.0% 30% 30% -32.1%
≤30d 27 -17.3% -25.2% 59% 48% -9.0%
≤90d 27 -17.3% -25.2% 59% 48% -9.0%
all 27 -17.3% -25.2% 59% 48% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 48% -9.0%
10% -32.3% 22% -17.7%
15% -38.9% 22% -25.6%
20% -44.8% 7% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage10d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $216 $214 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 +$30 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$38 -92%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$11 -54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$21 +103%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $61 +$26 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $24 +$12 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $50 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $102 −$16 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$6 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $61 +$14 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 09 $83 +$34 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $37 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $123 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 56¢ $20 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $24 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $59 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $61 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $9 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.17 · official $214.17 (match) · 62 history records