Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CD 0xcd59…9eca other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized −$3 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$654now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.8% -3.4% 67% 67% -10.8%
≤30d 3 +6.8% -3.4% 67% 67% -10.8%
≤90d 3 +6.8% -3.4% 67% 67% -10.8%
all 3 +6.8% -3.4% 67% 67% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 67% -10.8%
10% -12.7% 67% -19.4%
15% -21.1% 67% -27.1%
20% -28.8% 33% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$200 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$654
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$142 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 79¢ $302 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 31h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $654.25 · official $654.25 (match) · 14 history records