Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:22:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcd5b…d6d0 sports 493 markets active 6h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate79%389W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$71
14 days−$28
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$3
crypto 4% −$18
other 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 -9.6% -18.2% 71% 69% -17.3%
≤30d 491 +2.2% -7.5% 79% 78% -10.7%
≤90d 493 +2.0% -7.7% 79% 78% -10.7%
all 493 +2.0% -7.7% 79% 78% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 78% -10.7%
10% -16.5% 43% -19.2%
15% -24.6% 6% -27.0%
20% -32.0% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses389 / 104
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)493 / 493
History coverage35d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 493 Trades
no open positions (90 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $3 +$1 +27%
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Akira Santillan Jun 22 $3 $0 +16%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Pedro Martinez Jun 22 $3 +$1 +18%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding Jun 22 $3 −$3 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 22 $3 $0 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lorenzo Giustino vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 22 $3 +$1 +18%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 22 $3 +$1 +29%
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Jun 22 $4 −$1 -34%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 21 $4 +$1 +18%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm Jun 21 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 -4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $4 −$4 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 21 $4 +$1 +34%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Kimberly Birre Jun 21 $4 +$1 +23%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk Jun 21 $4 +$1 +29%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Taylor Townsend Jun 21 $4 −$4 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Veronika Erj Jun 21 $4 +$1 +27%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 21 $4 −$4 -99%
ITF Mohammedia: Daria Egorova vs Nina Vargova Jun 21 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 21 $4 +$1 +36%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) Jun 20 $4 +$1 +17%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 20 $4 +$1 +32%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 20 $4 +$1 +32%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 20 $4 +$1 +16%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 20 $4 +$1 +26%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 20 $4 $0 +13%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Jun 20 $4 +$1 +31%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $4 +$1 +34%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Emily Appleton Jun 20 $4 +$1 +18%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 20 $4 +$1 +18%
ITF Ystad: Madison Sieg vs Lucie Petruzelova Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) Jun 20 $4 −$4 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu Jun 20 $4 −$4 -99%
ITF Haskovo: Selena Janicijevic vs Lidia Encheva Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 20 $4 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Akira Santillan BUY Cezar Cretu 86¢ $3 6h
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 78¢ $3 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Pedro Martinez BUY Otto Virtanen 84¢ $3 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding BUY Oliver Bonding 75¢ $3 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 89¢ $3 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Raphael Collignon 82¢ $3 19h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lorenzo Giustino vs Gauthier Onclin BUY Gauthier Onclin 84¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 29h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 77¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 956 history records