Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CD 0xcd5c…346c politics 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$19
politics 36% −$22
sports 8% +$13
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 98 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 131 +0.0% -9.5% 8% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 4% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×6.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage131d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $307 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $246 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $259 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $225 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $320 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $312 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $231 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $318 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $260 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $934 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $317 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $278 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 10 $333 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $303 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $228 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $201 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 06 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $255 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $284 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $206 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 03 $282 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $258 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $218 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $266 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $252 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $767 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $271 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $223 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $309 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? Apr 22 $251 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $286 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $241 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $598 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 21 $327 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $238 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $272 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $237 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $277 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $42 2h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 21d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 21d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $306 21d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $306 25d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $307 25d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $307 25d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $246 26d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $246 26d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $285 26d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $285 26d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $259 28d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $259 29d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $320 29d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $320 29d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $225 29d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $225 29d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $328 30d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $328 30d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $320 31d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $320 31d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $312 31d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $312 31d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $231 31d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $231 31d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $318 31d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $318 32d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $260 33d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $260 34d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $264 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.98 · official $41.98 (match) · 383 history records