Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd5d…c8f5 politics 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%3W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$21
other 19% −$3
sports 14% −$3
world 9% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.7%
all 66 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses3 / 63
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage206d
Avg bet$324
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $296 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $296 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $296 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $296 +$1 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $296 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $297 −$1 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 20 $297 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $297 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $297 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $307 −$10 -3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $307 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $307 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $307 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $309 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $309 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $309 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $310 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $311 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $311 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 31 $311 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $311 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $311 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $618 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 23 $312 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 20 $312 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $312 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 14 $312 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $611 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 09 $312 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 07 $312 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $299 −$2 -1%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $300 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 15 $303 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 14 $300 $0 -0%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 13 $304 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 13 $307 $0 -0%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 11 $298 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 07 $301 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 05 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 05 $302 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 03 $309 $0 -0%
Will António Filipe win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 03 $305 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $304 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 01 $298 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $300 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 31 $303 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 29 $299 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $296 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $296 13h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $296 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $296 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $296 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $296 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $296 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $296 11d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $296 17d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $296 18d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $296 28d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $297 29d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $297 36d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $35 36d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $262 36d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $297 37d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $297 38d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $297 40d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 40d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 40d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 40d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 40d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $121 40d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 40d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $297 42d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $307 43d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $307 46d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $20 47d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $31 47d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $17 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 261 history records