Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:40:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CD 0xcd5e…9d93 sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$336 (+19%) realized +$336 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$444
7 days+$288
14 days+$350
30 days+$350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$200
other 23% +$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +20.3% +8.9% 63% 63% +10.6%
≤30d 23 +19.7% +8.3% 61% 61% +9.6%
≤90d 23 +19.7% +8.3% 61% 61% +9.6%
all 23 +19.7% +8.3% 61% 61% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.3% 61% +9.6%
10% -2.1% 48% -0.9%
15% -11.5% 39% -10.5%
20% -20.2% 22% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$32 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$336
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage7d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $107 +$43 +41%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $106 +$56 +52%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $65 +$27 +42%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $108 +$269 +250%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $107 −$26 -24%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $107 −$11 -10%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $62 +$15 +25%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $36 +$17 +48%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $107 +$54 +50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $38 −$30 -77%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 +$1 +22%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $107 −$8 -7%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 $0 -10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $54 +$20 +37%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $108 −$105 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $12 +$15 +124%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $108 −$105 -97%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$4 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $147 +$52 +35%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $106 −$3 -2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $107 −$1 -1%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $107 +$59 +55%
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $50 +$8 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 72¢ $150 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $107 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 28¢ $108 7h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $106 8h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $65 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 26¢ $81 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $96 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $107 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $107 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 77¢ $66 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 77¢ $2 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 77¢ $9 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $62 12h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 19¢ $32 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 20¢ $13 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 20¢ $5 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 23¢ $2 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 13¢ $36 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 68¢ $161 31h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $107 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $8 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $38 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 49¢ $6 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $99 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 61¢ $3 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $107 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $3 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 53¢ $32 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $14 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records