Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd5e…7b83 crypto 678 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 133d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$858 (-4%) realized −$828 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%211W / 466L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 133d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$3,211
sports 11% −$682
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -29.2% -35.9% 28% 28% -37.8%
≤30d 94 -31.2% -37.8% 27% 27% -38.1%
≤90d 94 -31.2% -37.8% 27% 27% -38.1%
all 677 -28.1% -35.0% 31% 30% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.0% 30% -26.6%
10% ← realistic here -41.2% 29% -33.6%
15% -46.9% 28% -40.0%
20% -52.1% 26% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$25 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$828
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses211 / 466
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)677 / 678
History coverage133d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 677 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner FURIA 34¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 293 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Blue Slip" this week? (January 11) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $45 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$19 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $9 +$13 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $99 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$8 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$12 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$12 +146%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$21 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $17 +$69 +397%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$73 +474%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $33 −$12 -36%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $133 −$30 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$33 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$30 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$9 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $71 +$40 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $148 −$74 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $59 −$57 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$20 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$47 +130%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$135 +135%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 9¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 34¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $99 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $24 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.09 (match) · 3500 history records