Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd5e…fda3 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 395d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-1%) realized −$49 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$35
politics 30% −$2
tech 16% −$1
sports 4% −$17
crypto 4% $0
economics 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 20% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 7 -28.6% -35.4% 14% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 13 -23.1% -30.4% 23% 0% -11.7%
all 39 -7.7% -16.5% 38% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 0% -10.7%
10% -24.5% 0% -19.2%
15% -31.8% 0% -27.0%
20% -38.5% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

395d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage395d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Haiti 50¢ 50¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 20? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $615 −$1 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? May 18 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 30-April 5? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,600 on January 20? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on January 31? Mar 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 7? Jan 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Dec 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.30 December 1-7? Dec 26 $13 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 28 $43 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on November 13? Nov 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21? Nov 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 29 $37 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $3600 on August 29? Oct 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in August? Sep 23 $3 $0 +1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 16 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jul 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Indianapolis Colts? May 28 $280 $0 -0%
Will Ashwin Adhin be the next president of Suriname after the election May 28 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 24 $273 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? May 24 $276 $0 -0%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci May 19 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? May 19 $280 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 50¢ $93 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $609 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $187 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $423 1h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $614 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $615 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $621 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $652 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $14 5d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25d
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 78¢ $19 25d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $21 25d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 30d
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $23 30d
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $16 30d
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $23 30d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 67d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 67d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 78d
Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 30-April 5? BUY No 100¢ $14 78d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 78d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 78d
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $24 92d
Will Mistral have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 92d
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $11 92d
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $35 92d
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on January 31? BUY No 100¢ $38 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.56 · official $104.56 (match) · 108 history records