Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CD
0xcd61…02d4
sports · 624 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$632 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$615 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$66
Realized−$615
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses317 / 300
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions7
Markets (closed)617 / 624
History coverage71d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 7 History 617 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$2
14 days−$115
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 14¢ 14¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Heretics 49¢ 22¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-55%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Team Heretics 54¢ 44¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-18%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI KT Rolster 13¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-19%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Leviatán Esports 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 47¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Card) Daniel Santos 72¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 30? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 7? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 11? No 83¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 8? No 68¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
O/U 4.5 Rounds Under 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 1? No 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card) Deiveson Figueiredo 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims) Marcus Buchecha 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago Cubs 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Rockets Rockets 42¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Frances Tiafoe 49¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
NBA Playoffs: Knicks vs. Hawks Total Games O/U 5.5 Under 5.5 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Daniel Merida Aguilar 62¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: STATE vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Series 6 Group C ex-Zero Tenacity 54¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $11 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $10 +$9 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$7 +44%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $17 +$12 +73%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $7 +$10 +146%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $4 +$3 +58%
ITF Zagreb: Gina Marie Dittmann vs Ipek Oz Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $15 +$14 +93%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 +$1 +57%
ITF Nice: Manon Favier vs Julia Stusek Jun 10 $15 +$4 +24%
ITF Zagreb: Lea Boskovic vs Erika Andreeva Jun 10 $4 +$1 +32%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $22 +$7 +30%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5) Jun 09 $6 +$2 +38%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $4 +$1 +19%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $7 +$1 +12%
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 09 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $18 −$17 -97%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$17 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 09 $14 +$11 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$12 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET Jun 09 $14 −$13 -96%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 09 $49 −$48 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$2 +93%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Jun 07 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $8 +$5 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% −$346
weather 25% −$164
crypto 11% −$68
other 7% −$53
economics 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 49¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $5 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 54¢ $13 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $2 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 55¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $17 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 14¢ $20 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 42¢ $1 3h
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Harriet Dart 44¢ $15 4h
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Harriet Dart 45¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 5h
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur BUY Benjamin Bonzi 22¢ $11 6h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria SELL Tatjana Maria 37¢ $19 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 7h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 49¢ $11 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $17 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -6.6% -15.5% 55% 55% -9.8%
≤30d 192 -6.5% -15.4% 49% 48% -16.8%
≤90d 617 -5.6% -14.6% 51% 50% -18.0%
all 617 -5.6% -14.6% 51% 50% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 50% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 45% -25.8%
15% -30.2% 41% -33.0%
20% -37.1% 37% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.32 · official $66.32 (match) · 2247 history records