Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

CD 0xcd62…6c34 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$548 (+13%) realized +$548 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate79%19W / 5L

Drawdown2%max

Avg bet$167per market

Trades / day21.0pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)+5.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	+17.1%	+5.9%	79%	42%	+6.9%
≤30d	24	+17.1%	+5.9%	79%	42%	+6.9%
≤90d	24	+17.1%	+5.9%	79%	42%	+6.9%
all	24	+17.1%	+5.9%	79%	42%	+6.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover21.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+5.9%	42%	+6.9%
10% ← realistic here	-4.2%	33%	-3.3%
15%	-13.5%	21%	-12.7%
20%	-22.0%	17%	-21.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

47% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +14% → late +20% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$41 vs −$4 · ×10.82 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×41.1 per $1 lost it wins $41.1

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$548

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)79%

Wins / losses19 / 5

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions0

Markets (closed)24 / 25

History coverage2d

Avg bet$167

Trades / day21.0

Drawdown2%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 24 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	Jun 23	$760	+$14	+2%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5	Jun 23	$750	+$7	+1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$558	+$196	+35%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 23	$134	+$1	+1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$520	+$37	+7%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$118	+$1	+1%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$125	+$25	+20%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 23	$300	+$6	+2%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$118	+$36	+30%
France leading at halftime?	Jun 22	$252	+$81	+32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$251	+$119	+48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$152	+$98	+64%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Jun 21	$37	+$115	+308%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$19	+$19	+102%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran?	Jun 21	$5	−$2	-39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Jun 21	$2	$0	-2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 21	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Jun 21	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Jun 21	$2	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Jun 21	$6	+$1	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Jun 21	$5	$0	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Jun 21	$5	$0	+6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	Jun 21	$22	+$14	+64%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	SELL No	100¢	$699	1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	SELL No	100¢	$76	1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY No	98¢	$760	1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$757	2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	99¢	$750	2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$754	3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	73¢	$558	3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$135	3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	99¢	$134	3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$557	18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	93¢	$520	19h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$119	19h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	99¢	$118	19h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$150	19h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$306	19h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	98¢	$300	19h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$154	20h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	83¢	$125	20h
France leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$333	22h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	76¢	$118	23h
France leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	75¢	$252	23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$370	25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$251	27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$250	41h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	60¢	$152	43h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	99¢	$133	44h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	50¢	$20	44h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	21¢	$37	46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$38	47h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	57¢	$13	47h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records