Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:26:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CD 0xcd62…39ea sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$285 (+10%) realized +$285 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%23W / 27L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days+$40
14 days+$83
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$368
other 5% −$115
world 3% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.9% -5.1% 60% 60% -4.4%
≤30d 9 +7.5% -2.8% 56% 44% -2.0%
≤90d 33 +4.8% -5.2% 48% 45% -6.2%
all 50 +10.7% +0.2% 46% 44% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 44% -1.3%
10% -9.4% 36% -10.8%
15% -18.2% 36% -19.4%
20% -26.2% 26% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$25 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$285
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses23 / 27
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage120d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $172 −$7 -4%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 26 $143 +$57 +40%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 25 $161 +$66 +41%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $101 +$48 +48%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $126 −$125 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $95 +$41 +44%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $90 +$7 +7%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 17 $58 −$2 -3%
Set 1 Winner: Dart vs Boulter Jun 15 $58 −$3 -5%
Cobolli vs. Fucsovics: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Apr 13 $40 −$1 -2%
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $115 −$115 -100%
Suns vs. Lakers Apr 11 $50 +$103 +206%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 09 $74 −$73 -99%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs Hashiras (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Apr 09 $53 −$52 -99%
Counter-Strike: ESC Gaming vs Bebop (BO3) - European Pro League Series Apr 09 $54 −$5 -9%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 08 $36 −$35 -98%
Map Handicap: FV (-1.5) vs InControl (+1.5) Apr 08 $56 +$52 +93%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 03 $50 +$43 +86%
Will Once Caldas win on 2026-04-02? Apr 03 $21 −$21 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF Femenino: Both Teams to Score Apr 03 $42 +$54 +127%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs GLYPH (BO3) - BLAST Slam Southeast Asia Closed Apr 02 $58 −$57 -99%
Credit One Charleston Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Ekaterina Alexandro Apr 02 $83 −$3 -3%
San Luis Potosi: Theodore Winegar vs Rodrigo Alujas Apr 01 $63 +$46 +73%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2? Mar 30 $20 +$21 +107%
Grand Prix Hassan II, Qualification: Timofey Skatov vs Moez Echargui Mar 30 $57 +$56 +98%
Credit One Charleston Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Akasha Ur Mar 29 $45 +$64 +144%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs TEAM ASCEND (BO1) - Roman Imperi Mar 29 $8 −$1 -9%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Mar 29 $53 +$23 +43%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Mar 28 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: bankaPEPSI vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - CCT Europe Mar 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - Journey Playoffs Mar 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs NOMERCY (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Gro Mar 28 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Russia win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $90 +$13 +14%
Alicante: Pedro Martinez vs Pablo Carreno Busta Mar 27 $29 +$29 +100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Sinners (BO3) - BC Game Masters Champi Mar 26 $29 +$35 +122%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier B: Mexico vs Cayman Mar 13 $95 +$20 +22%
McDonald vs. Nardi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Mar 11 $53 −$1 -2%
Santiago: Adolfo Vallejo vs Gonzalo Villanueva Mar 10 $80 +$15 +19%
Mavericks vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5 Mar 09 $33 +$55 +163%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Great Britain Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: megoshort vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - BC Game Masters Group S Mar 05 $63 −$11 -18%
Eva Lys vs. Caty McNally: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Mar 04 $35 −$1 -2%
Lys vs. McNally: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Mar 04 $60 −$1 -2%
Spread: Timberwolves (-14.5) Mar 03 $29 −$2 -8%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Players (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage Mar 03 $54 −$1 -2%
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Joanna Garland vs Taylor Townsend Mar 03 $90 +$56 +63%
Austin Peay Governors vs. Bellarmine Knights Feb 28 $19 +$43 +226%
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Feb 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Kukushkin vs. Gaston: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Feb 27 $12 $0 -2%
LoL: Verdant vs Bulldog Esports (BO1) - NLC Regular Season Feb 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 60¢ $165 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $172 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 71¢ $143 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 70¢ $161 18h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $101 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $126 6d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 69¢ $95 8d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 93¢ $90 8d
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 51¢ $58 10d
Set 1 Winner: Dart vs Boulter SELL Boulter 50¢ $55 10d
Set 1 Winner: Dart vs Boulter BUY Boulter 51¢ $58 10d
Cobolli vs. Fucsovics: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $40 74d
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 52¢ $115 75d
Suns vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 32¢ $50 77d
Lakers vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 57¢ $74 77d
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs Hashiras (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY UNiTY esports 54¢ $53 77d
Counter-Strike: ESC Gaming vs Bebop (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY ESC Gaming 54¢ $54 78d
Hawks vs. Cavaliers BUY Hawks 40¢ $36 78d
Map Handicap: FV (-1.5) vs InControl (+1.5) BUY InControl 51¢ $56 80d
Will Once Caldas win on 2026-04-02? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 84d
Spurs vs. Clippers BUY Spurs 53¢ $50 84d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs GLYPH (BO3) - BLAST Slam Southeast Asia Closed BUY Team Nemesis 63¢ $58 84d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF Femenino: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $42 84d
Credit One Charleston Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Ekaterina Alexandro BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 51¢ $83 85d
San Luis Potosi: Theodore Winegar vs Rodrigo Alujas BUY Rodrigo Alujas 57¢ $63 86d
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 48¢ $20 87d
Grand Prix Hassan II, Qualification: Timofey Skatov vs Moez Echargui BUY Timofey Skatov 50¢ $57 88d
Credit One Charleston Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Akasha Ur BUY Akasha Urhobo 41¢ $45 88d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 70¢ $53 89d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 51¢ $34 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records