Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd62…5bb3 other 22 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+7%) realized −$116 · open +$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day53.0pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$513now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$40
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$16 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$513
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$150
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Open positions15
Markets (closed)7 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day53.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 4¢ 11¢ $59 $146 +$86 (+146%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 52¢ 88¢ $49 $83 +$35 (+72%)
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 27¢ 44¢ $46 $75 +$30 (+65%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 20¢ 48¢ $30 $69 +$39 (+132%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $49 $51 +$2 (+3%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 32¢ 69¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+114%)
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+53%)
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $37 $12 −$25 (-68%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-44%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Will Ben Griffin win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-80%)
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-85%)
Will Jacob Bridgeman win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Harris English win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Alex Smalley finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Alex Smalley finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -97%
Will Alex Smalley finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Jacob Bridgeman win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Harris English win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 2d
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2d
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 27¢ $25 2d
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 2d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 2d
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 2d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $50 2d
Will Alex Smalley finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will Alex Smalley finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will Alex Smalley finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Ben Griffin win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 2d
Will Ben Griffin win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Ben Griffin win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Alex Smalley finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 2d
Will Alex Smalley finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will Alex Smalley finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 2d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $512.92 · official $512.93 (match) · 53 history records