Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd62…c99d world 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% +$7
sports 5% −$4
other 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 5 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 11 +23.5% +11.7% 36% 9% -7.1%
all 21 +9.3% -1.1% 43% 10% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 10% -8.6%
10% -10.6% 10% -17.3%
15% -19.2% 5% -25.3%
20% -27.1% 5% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage491d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $50 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $2 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $3 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $90 +$5 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 24 $45 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $32 +$2 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $6 −$1 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Alabama A&M vs. Alabama State Mar 21 $4 +$2 +33%
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%? Mar 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-02-26? Feb 25 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 24 $5 $0 -2%
Gonzaga vs. Washington State Feb 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will USA win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off? Feb 18 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $49 14m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $50 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $32 41h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $3 41h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $35 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $50 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $49 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $1 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $44 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 71¢ $41 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $45 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $45 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 40¢ $22 32d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 40¢ $12 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.90 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records