Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:49:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CD 0xcd64…b1b3 other 30 markets active 1d ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,784 (+1%) realized +$1,786 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate100%28W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$7,699per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$570
7 days+$1,030
14 days+$1,288
30 days+$1,772
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$1,340
finance 6% +$44
world 4% +$387
sports 3% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 26 +2.6% -7.2% 100% 4% -8.8%
≤90d 27 +2.5% -7.2% 100% 4% -8.8%
all 28 +2.4% -7.3% 100% 4% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 4% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 4% -17.6%
15% -24.3% 0% -25.5%
20% -31.7% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$10,802) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized+$1,786
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses28 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage212d
Avg bet$7,699
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $237 $235 −$2 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $11,401 +$104 +1%
Will Jordan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $475 +$2 +0%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $9,900 +$100 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10,802 +$198 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10,945 +$167 +2%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $996 +$4 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $74,826 +$86 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10,294 +$264 +3%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10,910 +$33 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10,900 +$11 +0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10,838 +$61 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10,672 +$165 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $76 +$25 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $91 +$9 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,526 +$5 +0%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $10,185 +$10 +0%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $2,256 +$25 +1%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1,393 +$9 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10,537 +$11 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $10,526 +$11 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $610 +$21 +3%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $1,290 +$16 +1%
Will Naomi Osaka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $1,500 +$50 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $10,053 +$387 +4%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $7,532 +$8 +0%
Eagles vs. Cowboys Nov 24 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 99¢ $11,401 28h
Will Jordan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $156 40h
Will Jordan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 40h
Will Jordan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $258 40h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $286 41h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $99 41h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $99 41h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $989 41h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $5,445 41h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $2,023 41h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $959 41h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $10,802 44h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $551 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $408 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $3,607 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $163 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $2,107 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $472 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $1,365 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $486 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $823 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $195 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $240 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $527 2d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $7 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $710 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $229 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.82 · official $292.82 (match) · 325 history records