trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 6 | +37.3% | +24.3% | 83% | 83% | +19.3% |
| all | 28 | +15.5% | +4.5% | 79% | 68% | -3.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +4.5% | 68% | -3.3% |
| 10% | -5.5% | 50% | -12.6% |
| 15% | -14.7% | 36% | -21.0% |
| 20% | -23.0% | 29% | -28.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | No | 39¢ | 38¢ | $202 | $198 | −$4 (-2%) |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 87¢ | 93¢ | $148 | $159 | +$11 (+7%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 86¢ | 94¢ | $135 | $147 | +$12 (+9%) |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 94¢ | $120 | $141 | +$21 (+18%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? | No | 71¢ | 70¢ | $142 | $140 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | No | 29¢ | 26¢ | $155 | $135 | −$20 (-13%) |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 15¢ | 18¢ | $101 | $122 | +$21 (+21%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 90¢ | $43 | $45 | +$2 (+5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026? | Apr 16 | $210 | +$26 | +12% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? | Apr 08 | $33 | +$13 | +39% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | Apr 08 | $28 | +$14 | +50% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Apr 08 | $49 | +$51 | +104% |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Mar 26 | $11 | −$11 | -96% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March | Mar 24 | $15 | +$17 | +115% |
| S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? | Mar 12 | $10 | +$11 | +117% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Mar 11 | $52 | −$52 | -100% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? | Mar 11 | $190 | +$105 | +55% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? | Mar 11 | $70 | −$70 | -100% |
| Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? | Mar 11 | $57 | −$57 | -100% |
| Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? | Mar 11 | $85 | −$85 | -100% |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? | Mar 04 | $50 | +$31 | +62% |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | Mar 04 | $16 | +$3 | +19% |
| Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | Jan 01 | $20 | +$3 | +15% |
| Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | Jan 01 | $20 | +$7 | +35% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Jan 01 | $35 | +$21 | +60% |
| Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game | Dec 12 | $20 | +$3 | +14% |
| Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Best Game Direction at the 2025 G | Dec 12 | $30 | +$8 | +28% |
| Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Dec 11 | $20 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? | Dec 11 | $12 | −$2 | -16% |
| Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Dec 11 | $100 | +$11 | +11% |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by Jan | Dec 11 | $10 | +$3 | +34% |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Dec 11 | $100 | +$6 | +6% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Dec 05 | $20 | +$7 | +34% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Nov 26 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 25 | $24 | +$16 | +68% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 21 | $15 | +$9 | +60% |