Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:08:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcd67…a2a0 crypto 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13 (-5%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%42W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$10
sports 30% −$16
other 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +5.9% -4.2% 67% 60% +0.0%
≤30d 15 +5.9% -4.2% 67% 60% +0.0%
≤90d 79 -9.6% -18.2% 52% 51% -18.1%
all 82 -9.2% -17.9% 51% 50% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 50% -18.5%
10% -25.7% 49% -26.3%
15% -32.9% 35% -33.4%
20% -39.5% 32% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses42 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage158d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Down 61¢ 56¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +59%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +78%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 17 $2 +$3 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 08 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 07 $2 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 07 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 07 $2 +$2 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 07 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 07 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 07 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 07 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 07 $1 +$1 +80%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Punjab Kings Apr 07 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 06 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 06 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 06 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 06 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 06 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 06 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 06 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 06 $6 +$2 +30%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Alexander Blockx Apr 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 06 $2 +$3 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 06 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 06 $5 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 7m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.66 · official $3.66 (match) · 186 history records