Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:50:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CD 0xcd69…0986 crypto 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,267 (-35%) realized −$7,040 · open −$227
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%30W / 91L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$841
30 days−$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$4,487
other 18% −$1,983
sports 15% +$144
economics 5% −$791
politics 3% −$28
world 2% −$392
finance 1% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-51.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 27 -15.9% -23.9% 41% 41% -17.5%
≤90d 55 -40.7% -46.3% 29% 29% -42.3%
all 121 -46.2% -51.3% 25% 23% -43.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.3% 23% -43.4%
10% -56.0% 22% -48.8%
15% -60.2% 21% -53.7%
20% -64.1% 19% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -46% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$147 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$499
Realized−$7,040
Unrealized−$227
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses30 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions9
Markets (closed)121 / 130
History coverage253d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $150 $143 −$7 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $50 $22 −$28 (-55%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $128 $21 −$107 (-83%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $12 −$38 (-77%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$28 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 10 $95 −$60 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $42 −$24 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$58 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $85 −$80 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $84 +$91 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $42 −$28 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 10 $36 −$34 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $18 −$17 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $9 +$10 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 05 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 05 $44 +$60 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 05 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 05 $104 +$114 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 05 $155 +$152 +98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $470 −$462 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $213 −$210 -99%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 02 $202 −$200 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $508 +$628 +124%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $354 +$229 +65%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Apr 27 $60 +$39 +66%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $326 +$273 +84%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on October 8? Apr 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,500 on October 8? Apr 26 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Apr 26 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 13? Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 14? Apr 26 $150 −$150 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Apr 26 $60 −$60 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Apr 26 $192 −$192 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,600 on October 8? Apr 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 8? Apr 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 February 23-March 1? Apr 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on October 8? Apr 26 $400 −$400 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 6PM ET Apr 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 26 $50 +$42 +84%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 26 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $98 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $30 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $31 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $105 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $21 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $52 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $53 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $16 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $30 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $43 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $44 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $499.21 · official $496.30 (match) · 284 history records