Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:48:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CD 0xcd69…63eb sports 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$212 (+13%) realized +$204 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate61%20W / 13L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$291
other 27% −$29
culture 1% −$13
crypto 0% −$5
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -22.5% -29.9% 40% 40% -16.3%
≤30d 15 -22.5% -29.9% 40% 40% -16.3%
≤90d 15 -22.5% -29.9% 40% 40% -16.3%
all 33 +11.3% +0.7% 61% 55% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 55% +4.9%
10% -9.0% 42% -5.1%
15% -17.8% 33% -14.3%
20% -25.8% 27% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$21 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$204
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses20 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage250d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 82¢ 100¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 22¢ 8¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $20 −$8 -38%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 +$20 +98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 +$31 +52%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$1 -5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 02 $319 +$20 +6%
Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025? Dec 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $18 +$82 +456%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $60 +$90 +150%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3) Nov 02 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $60 +$90 +150%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Oct 25 $50 +$5 +11%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Oct 25 $160 +$25 +16%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 25 $40 +$28 +70%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 25 $2 −$2 -76%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 (BO3) Oct 24 $80 +$2 +3%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 23 $40 +$11 +27%
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 22 $30 +$23 +76%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) Oct 22 $20 +$4 +20%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) Oct 19 $7 +$4 +61%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1) Oct 19 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) Oct 19 $20 +$3 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 14 $30 +$8 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 83¢ $101 24m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 26¢ $13 57m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 89¢ $40 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 31h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 39¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $29 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 6d
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs BUY Gen.G 94¢ $319 110d
Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 34¢ $100 170d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 222d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 40¢ $60 222d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY T1 40¢ $60 231d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) SELL Top Esports 100¢ $102 237d
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) BUY T1 81¢ $10 237d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.96 · official $127.96 (match) · 75 history records