Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:15:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcd6a…fdbb sports 386 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$972 (-3%) realized −$890 · open −$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%210W / 173L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$535est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$220
7 days+$523
14 days−$586
30 days−$2,541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$2,340
other 2% −$135
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +18.4% +7.1% 74% 67% +22.2%
≤30d 365 -16.6% -24.5% 53% 47% -17.5%
≤90d 365 -16.6% -24.5% 53% 47% -17.5%
all 383 -14.2% -22.4% 55% 49% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 49% -16.8%
10% -29.8% 40% -24.7%
15% -36.6% 29% -32.0%
20% -42.8% 20% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$55 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$890
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses210 / 173
Est. fees paid−$535
Open positions3
Markets (closed)383 / 386
History coverage115d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 383 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 66¢ $167 $130 −$37 (-22%)
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Acend 23¢ 62¢ $20 $54 +$34 (+170%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Falcons Esport 79¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 140 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 23 $42 +$70 +166%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 23 $98 +$52 +53%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $28 +$17 +61%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $47 +$53 +114%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Jun 23 $16 +$4 +28%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $53 +$47 +89%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $53 +$91 +172%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $54 −$53 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $28 +$22 +79%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $39 +$11 +27%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $2 −$2 -93%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $36 +$14 +37%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 22 $28 +$2 +6%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $41 +$23 +56%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $36 +$4 +12%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $88 −$88 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $50 −$49 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $231 +$178 +77%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $66 +$1 +1%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $89 +$110 +123%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $53 +$12 +23%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $112 +$31 +27%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $85 +$20 +24%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $76 −$8 -11%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $61 +$8 +13%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $197 −$43 -22%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $48 +$74 +156%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $111 −$50 -45%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $147 −$77 -53%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $186 −$59 -32%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $75 +$41 +54%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $19 +$2 +13%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $9 +$10 +123%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 14 $54 −$53 -99%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $80 +$19 +24%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $114 −$113 -99%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $86 +$29 +33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $499 −$66 -13%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $92 −$90 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $194 −$91 -47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $97 −$97 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $158 −$153 -97%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $102 −$42 -42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $90 +$1 +1%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $131 +$34 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 23¢ $20 36m
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MEN BUY Falcons Esport 79¢ $17 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MEN BUY Falcons Esport 79¢ $16 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MEN BUY Falcons Esport 79¢ $8 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MEN BUY Falcons Esport 79¢ $7 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MEN BUY Falcons Esport 79¢ $16 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MEN BUY Falcons Esport 79¢ $16 1h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C SELL MIR 100¢ $113 1h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY MIR 37¢ $5 1h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY MIR 37¢ $38 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage SELL Misa Esports 100¢ $150 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $167 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $45 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $100 2h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 64¢ $32 2h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 65¢ $13 2h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 65¢ $53 2h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Misa Esports 100¢ $100 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 62¢ $27 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 62¢ $1 2h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 52¢ $53 2h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 78¢ $4 2h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 78¢ $12 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 46¢ $47 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL Grind Back 100¢ $144 14h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 36¢ $53 16h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY REKONIX 46¢ $42 16h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY REKONIX 46¢ $4 16h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 16h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 3¢ $0 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.03 · official $189.31 · 1546 history records