Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:19:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcd6b…28ea crypto 799 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,416 (-10%) realized −$1,452 · open +$36
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%340W / 455L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day48.4pace
Fees−$138est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$263
7 days−$753
14 days−$1,424
30 days−$1,597
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$203
other 35% −$1,555
crypto 24% −$205
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +23.9% +12.1% 60% 58% -17.8%
≤30d 795 -7.9% -16.7% 43% 41% -20.1%
≤90d 795 -7.9% -16.7% 43% 41% -20.1%
all 795 -7.9% -16.7% 43% 41% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 41% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 40% -27.7%
15% -31.9% 38% -34.7%
20% -38.6% 36% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$1,452
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses340 / 455
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions4
Markets (closed)795 / 799
History coverage29d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day48.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 795 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 66¢ $100 $136 +$36 (+36%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 402 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 +$131 +129%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $404 +$184 +46%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June Jun 20 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 +17%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 $0 -0%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $202 −$200 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $203 −$71 -35%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 +$49 +48%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $450 +$252 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 $0 +17%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +13%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 −$159 -78%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 +$115 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$32 +32%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $95 +$237 +249%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $405 +$18 +4%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $410 −$237 -58%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $406 −$400 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $202 +$136 +67%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $408 +$189 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$63 +42%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$8 -16%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $256 +$78 +30%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $352 −$349 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $406 −$400 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$6 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $132 +$118 +89%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 +$199 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $96 +$54 +57%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $68 −$67 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $178 −$175 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $438 −$367 -84%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $60 +$72 +121%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $88 +$26 +30%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $89 +$53 +59%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $60 +$129 +216%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $192 −$36 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $102 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $588 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $404 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $102 11h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $202 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 38¢ $132 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 27h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 89¢ $150 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 31h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $701 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $450 40h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 86¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 85¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June BUY No 85¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $2 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 10¢ $44 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $203 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 80¢ $318 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $135 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $203 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $332 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 60¢ $423 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.64 · official $158.73 · 1751 history records