Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:44:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd75…c68a other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 33L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% $0
world 30% −$1
politics 10% +$7
crypto 5% −$4
culture 3% $0
finance 3% −$1
sports 3% +$1
tech 3% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -1.4% -10.8% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 12 -1.4% -10.8% 17% 0% -10.0%
all 53 -3.2% -12.4% 38% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 2% -9.3%
10% -20.8% 2% -17.9%
15% -28.4% 2% -25.9%
20% -35.4% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage474d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 75¢ 74¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $40 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $12 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $41 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $36 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $3 $0 -12%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 26 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 25 $2 $0 -18%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on May 30? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 30 $17 $0 -1%
Will Solana dip to $140 in May? May 30 $17 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? May 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 28 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 27 $19 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 27 $18 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 24 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 23 $18 $0 -1%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 21 $19 $0 +1%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 21 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 65% of the vote in the South Korea el May 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? May 11 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $18 $0 +2%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 10 $19 $0 -1%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope? May 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? May 07 $23 $0 -1%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9? May 06 $16 $0 +3%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $18 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $35 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $5 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $6 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $24 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $5 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $30 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $39 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $10 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $26 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $35 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $43 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $15 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $38 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $3 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $12 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $36 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 98¢ $36 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $19 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $18 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $36 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $18 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $18 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.86 · official $38.85 (match) · 178 history records