Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:25:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd76…0a8e crypto 191 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$370 (+10%) realized +$370 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%107W / 84L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day94.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$302
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 -2.8% -12.1% 56% 54% -2.1%
≤30d 191 -2.8% -12.1% 56% 54% -2.1%
≤90d 191 -2.8% -12.1% 56% 54% -2.1%
all 191 -2.8% -12.1% 56% 54% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 54% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 48% -11.4%
15% -28.2% 40% -20.0%
20% -35.2% 32% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$370
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses107 / 84
Open positions0
Markets (closed)191 / 191
History coverage5d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day94.9
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 191 Trades
no open positions (69 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $72 −$40 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $61 +$19 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$26 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $42 −$12 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $56 +$23 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$31 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$23 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$27 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $8 +$5 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $9 +$9 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $12 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $9 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$13 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $7 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$3 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $13 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$16 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $13 +$9 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $15 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $16 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $31 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $31 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $15 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 565 history records