Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd77…b12e crypto 1083 markets active 7h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$261 (-2%) realized −$261 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate37%439W / 759L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day58.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$151
7 days−$67
14 days+$72
30 days+$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$702
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 283 -33.8% -40.1% 20% 16% -15.1%
≤30d 637 +2.8% -7.0% 30% 25% -3.9%
≤90d 1198 -3.7% -12.9% 37% 26% -15.2%
all 1198 -3.7% -12.9% 37% 26% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 26% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 23% -23.3%
15% -28.8% 20% -30.7%
20% -35.8% 19% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$261
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses439 / 759
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1198 / 1083
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day58.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1198 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$46 +11419%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +708%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +1015%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $74 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $24 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records