Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:16:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CD 0xcd77…2e62 world 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$57 (-2%) realized −$54 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$6
sports 23% −$53
other 19% $0
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +2.0% -7.8% 25% 0% -7.2%
≤90d 10 -20.5% -28.0% 20% 0% -10.9%
all 12 -25.4% -32.5% 17% 0% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 0% -12.1%
10% -39.0% 0% -20.5%
15% -44.9% 0% -28.2%
20% -50.3% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$14 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$424
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage90d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $427 $424 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $230 $0 +0%
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Jun 19 $235 $0 +0%
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-1.5) Jun 02 $474 +$40 +8%
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? May 29 $475 −$3 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 09 $468 $0 +0%
Spread: Ismaily SC (-1.5) May 07 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? May 07 $23 −$2 -8%
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? May 07 $2 $0 -4%
Spread: Gwangju FC (-1.5) Apr 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Apr 22 $44 $0 +0%
Valorant: Team Evictix vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Mar 24 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Solary vs BIG (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Mar 24 $4 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 BUY No 96¢ $427 26m
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $230 30m
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $230 1h
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $235 3d
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $235 3d
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-1.5) BUY FK Bodø/Glimt 92¢ $474 24d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $472 24d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $475 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $468 44d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $468 44d
Spread: Ismaily SC (-1.5) BUY Ismaily SC $20 46d
Spread: Ismaily SC (-1.5) BUY Ismaily SC $19 46d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL Yes $11 46d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL Yes $11 46d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? BUY Yes $12 46d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? BUY Yes $12 46d
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 46d
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 46d
Spread: Gwangju FC (-1.5) BUY Gwangju FC $14 61d
Spread: Gwangju FC (-1.5) BUY Gwangju FC $13 61d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes $22 61d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes $22 61d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes $22 61d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes $22 61d
Valorant: Team Evictix vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage BUY Team Evictix 34¢ $10 90d
LoL: Solary vs BIG (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Solary 69¢ $4 90d
Valorant: Team Evictix vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage BUY Team Evictix 34¢ $17 90d
LoL: Solary vs BIG (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 69¢ $4 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $424.08 · official $424.08 (match) · 29 history records