Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:32:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd79…3215 world 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%27W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$2
politics 22% −$3
other 18% −$4
sports 14% −$5
economics 7% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 24 +79.8% +62.7% 42% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 70 +27.4% +15.3% 37% 4% -9.5%
all 76 +20.4% +9.0% 36% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 4% -9.9%
10% -1.5% 1% -18.6%
15% -11.0% 1% -26.4%
20% -19.7% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses27 / 49
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)76 / 80
History coverage526d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $85 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $81 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $75 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $80 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $2 $0 +17%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 27 $45 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $24 +$2 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $38 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $40 −$5 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $46 −$3 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $44 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $26 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $7 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $8 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $46 +$3 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $8 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $4 $0 +8%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $58 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $126 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $61 −$1 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $2 $0 -7%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $11 $0 -1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $3 $0 -4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $48 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $43 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $27 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $27 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $29 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $25 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $25 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $45 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $45 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $32 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $8 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $22 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $18 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.39 · official $41.80 · 328 history records