Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:40:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CD
0xcd82…9f66
sports · 109 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$7,132 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,706 · open −$427
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized−$6,706
Unrealized−$427
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses54 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$2,196
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage68d
Avg bet$883
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 107 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,162
7 days−$3,009
14 days−$3,009
30 days−$9,524
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 69¢ 4¢ $449 $26 −$423 (-94%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 29¢ 24¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 26¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 27¢ 0¢ $1,264 $0 −$1,264 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Spurs 14¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Milwaukee Brewers 13¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Chicago Cubs 33¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 25¢ 0¢ $3,960 $0 −$3,960 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 3¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Boston Red Sox 8¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Cincinnati Reds 48¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $66 −$19 -29%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $898 −$212 -24%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $232 +$149 +64%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $138 −$115 -83%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $87 +$25 +29%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $870 −$125 -14%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $616 −$109 -18%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $1,527 −$43 -3%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $412 −$16 -4%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $1,819 −$434 -24%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $4,260 −$1,263 -30%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $2,234 +$277 +12%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $306 −$300 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $2,330 −$263 -11%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $154 −$69 -45%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $1,034 +$153 +15%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1,017 −$91 -9%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $712 +$223 +31%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $5,228 −$357 -7%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $620 −$35 -6%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $103 −$56 -55%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $712 −$119 -17%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $1,222 +$94 +8%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $2,221 −$300 -14%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $3,058 +$362 +12%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $1,827 +$412 +23%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $308 −$213 -69%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $607 −$67 -11%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $1,025 −$129 -12%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $13 +$2 +13%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $1,210 +$395 +33%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $491 −$50 -10%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $154 −$57 -37%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $51 −$30 -59%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $7,494 −$732 -10%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $274 +$92 +34%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $132 −$4 -3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $41 +$16 +39%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1,291 −$1,264 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $1,203 +$88 +7%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $610 −$121 -20%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $4,001 −$3,960 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $837 −$344 -41%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1,344 −$140 -10%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $1,188 +$99 +8%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 22 $20 −$17 -85%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 22 $110 −$101 -92%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 22 $644 −$105 -16%
Magic vs. Pistons May 22 $486 −$162 -33%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 22 $240 −$240 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$7,132
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 29¢ $13 21m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 29¢ $0 21m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 29¢ $2 21m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 29¢ $0 21m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 29¢ $2 22m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 71¢ $251 23m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 67¢ $203 32m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL Atlanta Braves 4¢ $16 36m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 9¢ $37 39m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 24¢ $268 45m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 35¢ $204 50m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 35¢ $204 50m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 95¢ $285 58m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL Atlanta Braves 8¢ $31 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 32¢ $157 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 40¢ $204 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 60¢ $89 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 42¢ $128 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 8¢ $23 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 67¢ $101 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 7¢ $29 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $97 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ $103 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 23¢ $112 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $172 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 17¢ $87 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ $185 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 46¢ $138 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Seattle Mariners 5¢ $10 25h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 8¢ $17 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -17.4% -25.3% 32% 29% -15.8%
≤30d 56 -27.0% -33.9% 29% 23% -24.2%
≤90d 107 -10.3% -18.9% 50% 36% -15.8%
all 107 -10.3% -18.9% 50% 36% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 36% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 23% -23.9%
15% -33.7% 9% -31.2%
20% -40.2% 5% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.10 · official $40.10 (match) · 846 history records