Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcd82…c3ed sports 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%56W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$2
other 48% −$9
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -30.3% -37.0% 33% 33% -36.3%
≤30d 15 -11.2% -19.6% 47% 47% -3.3%
≤90d 96 +2.8% -7.0% 56% 56% -14.9%
all 98 +3.8% -6.1% 57% 57% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 57% -12.7%
10% -15.1% 57% -21.0%
15% -23.3% 52% -28.7%
20% -30.8% 43% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses56 / 42
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)98 / 103
History coverage94d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 65¢ 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $3 −$3 -99%
Australia vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $2 +$2 +109%
Mexico vs. Serbia: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $1 +$1 +128%
Albania vs. Israel: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $2 −$2 -99%
Wales vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $3 +$3 +97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $10 +$7 +67%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Scor May 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $3 −$3 -99%
Girona FC vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score May 23 $3 +$2 +70%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score May 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Score May 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 15 $2 +$1 +61%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $2 +$1 +64%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score May 12 $6 +$3 +41%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 +$1 +57%
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Score May 10 $2 +$1 +59%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 +$1 +76%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score May 09 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2 +$1 +50%
Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to Score May 09 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $2 +$1 +65%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $1 +$1 +76%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $5 +$1 +29%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $2 +$2 +113%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score May 03 $2 +$1 +64%
Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: Both Teams to Score May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 03 $3 +$1 +42%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 +$1 +64%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 03 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $1 +$1 +131%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $3 +$2 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $2 11h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 7¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $2 4d
Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $3 8d
Australia vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 9d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 10d
Mexico vs. Serbia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 10d
Mexico vs. Serbia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 11d
Albania vs. Israel: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $2 12d
Wales vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $6 13d
Wales vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 13d
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Scor BUY Yes 65¢ $2 22d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $3 22d
Girona FC vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $5 23d
Girona FC vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $3 24d
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $3 27d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 27d
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 65¢ $2 28d
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $1 28d
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $3 30d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 31d
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $3 31d
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $2 31d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 32d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.80 · official $15.80 (match) · 167 history records