Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:43:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd83…02c3 sports 160 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%17W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 24% −$3
sports 22% +$2
other 20% $0
economics 10% +$1
crypto 9% −$1
culture 8% −$1
world 5% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 159 +0.0% -9.5% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses17 / 142
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage162d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $43 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 01 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 01 $41 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 01 $352 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 01 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 01 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 01 $175 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 01 $270 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 01 $101 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Mar 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 01 $124 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 28 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 28 $39 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 28 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 28 $52 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 28 $50 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 28 $77 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 27 $69 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 27 $58 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 27 $203 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 26 $96 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Feb 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 24 $149 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 24 $103 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 24 $110 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 24 $135 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 24 $50 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $169 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $199 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 8, 2026 (ET)? Feb 24 $2 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 24 $66 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 24 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 24 $105 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 24 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 24 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 24 $215 −$1 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $160 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $163 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 20 $106 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $54 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $39 1h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 13d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $7 14d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 14d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 98¢ $40 27d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $40 28d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $49 38d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 38d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $44 113d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $44 113d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $41 113d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $41 113d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 113d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 113d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $46 113d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 113d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $50 113d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $50 113d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $43 113d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $43 113d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $42 113d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $42 113d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $49 113d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $49 113d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $51 113d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $52 113d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 93¢ $42 113d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 93¢ $42 113d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $43 113d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $43 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.44 · official $38.44 (match) · 636 history records