Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd84…7c61 other 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 226L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$29
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$35
sports 24% −$16
politics 8% −$6
crypto 7% −$19
culture 7% −$6
economics 5% −$4
world 3% −$5
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.3% -9.8% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)238 / 239
History coverage128d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $430 −$2 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $303 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $455 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $225 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $144 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $176 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $408 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $334 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $166 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $222 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $184 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $291 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $259 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $276 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $323 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $119 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $277 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $180 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $186 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $138 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $201 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $215 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $98 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $139 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $574 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $163 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $512 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $163 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $140 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $98 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 1h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 3h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $38 4h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 5h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $38 7h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $39 8h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $39 11h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $39 12h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $39 20h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $39 22h
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $39 26h
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $39 27h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $39 29h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $39 31h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $39 32h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $39 33h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $39 39h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $39 41h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $39 44h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $39 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $39 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $39 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $39 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $40 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $40 3d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $40 3d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.20 · official $38.20 (match) · 1356 history records