Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:56:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CD 0xcd85…1388 sports 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$8,167 (+28%) realized +$8,257 · open −$90
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%16W / 19L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$721per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$126est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$710now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,034
7 days−$3,385
14 days−$1,795
30 days−$1,795
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$7,643
other 18% +$280
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +5.7% -4.4% 36% 36% -38.1%
≤30d 29 +18.9% +7.5% 38% 38% -24.1%
≤90d 29 +18.9% +7.5% 38% 38% -24.1%
all 35 +24.4% +12.6% 46% 46% +15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.6% 46% +15.8%
10% +1.8% 46% +4.7%
15% -8.0% 43% -5.4%
20% -17.0% 40% -14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$925) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$958 vs −$385 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$710
Realized+$8,257
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses16 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$126
Open positions4
Markets (closed)35 / 41
History coverage229d
Avg bet$721
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Over 57¢ 100¢ $263 $462 +$199 (+76%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 32¢ $333 $221 −$112 (-34%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ $104 $14 −$90 (-87%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Over 49¢ $100 $13 −$87 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $359 +$184 +51%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $148 +$430 +290%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $152 +$131 +86%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $154 +$528 +344%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $153 +$424 +276%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $67 −$65 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $121 +$75 +62%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $67 −$35 -53%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $87 −$85 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $245 −$240 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,262 +$385 +30%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $122 −$10 -8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $163 +$266 +163%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $254 +$246 +97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 16 $244 −$244 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $267 −$267 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 16 $688 −$688 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 16 $828 −$828 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1,329 −$792 -60%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jun 16 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 16 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Jun 16 $1,328 −$1,328 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $173 −$9 -5%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $154 −$14 -9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $367 +$443 +121%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $154 −$43 -28%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 07 $410 +$1,590 +388%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $925 −$821 -89%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $8,410 +$4,643 +55%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $250 +$166 +66%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 02 $1,299 +$1,040 +80%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $4,725 +$1,687 +36%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Nov 02 $1,931 +$3,094 +160%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $106 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $142 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $56 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $66 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $338 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $15 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $56 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $359 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $77 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 18¢ $67 23h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $197 24h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes $15 24h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $121 24h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes $32 24h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes $36 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $153 25h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $154 25h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $152 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over $5 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $26 26h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes $67 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $122 38h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $5 38h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $26 39h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY 16¢ $26 39h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $56 39h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $245 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,274 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $710.23 · official $710.23 (match) · 123 history records