Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:54:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CD
0xcd86…d74f
sports · 562 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
+$957 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$588 · open +$86
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$586
Realized+$588
Unrealized+$86
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses410 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$393
Open positions2
Markets (closed)560 / 562
History coverage449d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 2 History 560 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$345
7 days−$372
14 days−$334
30 days−$332
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 81¢ 98¢ $400 $486 +$86 (+22%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 66¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Monte 19¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DRX Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff Playoffs DRX Challengers 29¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Tundra Esports 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Natus Vincere 68¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner Team Secret Whales 30¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Team Spirit 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner G2 Esports 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Tundra Esports 45¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Nongshim Red Force 18¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Heroic 33¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Anyones Legend 71¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Berlin International Gaming vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs G2 NORD 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner BetBoom Team 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs Team Liquid 71¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 2 Winner BNK FearX Youth 63¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner GAM Esports 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Paper Rex 65¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 18¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Team Liquid 67¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Shifters 28¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs Aurora Young Blood 98¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $401 +$18 +5%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $401 +$38 +10%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,618 −$308 -19%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $503 +$15 +3%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$26 +26%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $200 +$7 +3%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $30 +$32 +105%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $173 +$22 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $601 +$74 +12%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $200 +$8 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$8 -16%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $100 −$20 -20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $101 +$3 +3%
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 12 $200 −$3 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $201 +$55 +27%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $720 −$243 -34%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $804 −$64 -8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $515 −$45 -9%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $151 +$20 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 12 $30 $0 +2%
Will B8 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $402 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $504 −$11 -2%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$35 +70%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$37 +73%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 +$3 +5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $100 +$16 +16%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $101 +$35 +34%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $200 +$12 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $351 +$34 +10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $383 −$48 -13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $242 −$11 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $151 −$19 -13%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $80 +$5 +6%
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $700 +$1 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $201 +$11 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $340 +$12 +3%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $10 +$7 +70%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 04 $100 +$1 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $947 −$109 -12%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 02 $20 +$7 +33%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,060 +$21 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1,045 +$94 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $400 +$24 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 75% +$506
other 8% +$122
crypto 8% +$45
world 7% −$6
finance 1% +$21
politics 0% −$15
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $402 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $101 1h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Scotland 96¢ $401 10h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $439 10h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 91¢ $401 11h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & SELL LOS 100¢ $16 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $104 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 10¢ $62 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 30¢ $204 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 50¢ $455 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 64¢ $606 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 30¢ $103 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 58¢ $203 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 52¢ $68 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 76¢ $101 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 96¢ $100 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 69¢ $12 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 85¢ $582 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 71¢ $504 14h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 100¢ $62 14h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 48¢ $30 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 87¢ $100 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 87¢ $100 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 86¢ $100 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 81¢ $100 15h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 94¢ $50 16h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 94¢ $25 16h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 94¢ $6 16h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 94¢ $28 16h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 94¢ $15 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -0.5% -9.9% 66% 27% -9.8%
≤30d 114 +17.5% +6.3% 69% 37% -9.5%
≤90d 435 +8.5% -1.9% 72% 34% -8.2%
all 560 +6.0% -4.1% 73% 33% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 33% -8.3%
10% -13.3% 18% -17.0%
15% -21.7% 10% -25.1%
20% -29.4% 6% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $585.66 · official $585.66 (match) · 1597 history records