Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:34:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcd87…ac38 sports 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 956d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$22,986 (+10%) realized +$23,309 · open −$323
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%64W / 74L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$1,602per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$933est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1,488
30 days−$4,714
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$22,456
other 16% +$1,420
politics 3% −$3,183
crypto 1% +$203
world 0% +$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 16 -24.4% -31.6% 38% 38% -28.0%
≤90d 93 -31.2% -37.8% 31% 31% -29.6%
all 138 -0.3% -9.8% 46% 46% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 46% -0.8%
10% -18.5% 44% -10.3%
15% -26.3% 44% -18.9%
20% -33.6% 39% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$2,000) neutral
Persistence
early +36% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,688 vs −$1,171 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

956d coverage
Net worth$1,146
Realized+$23,309
Unrealized−$323
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses64 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$933
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage956d
Avg bet$1,602
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 35¢ 28¢ $1,469 $1,146 −$323 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,520 −$1,488 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,472 −$1,450 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $978 +$512 +52%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $8,210 −$380 -5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $260 −$250 -96%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $798 −$784 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,521 +$1,306 +86%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 30 $235 +$220 +93%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $1,028 −$1,000 -97%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $1,026 −$1,000 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $1,532 +$1,085 +71%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $497 +$370 +74%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $983 +$1,350 +137%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 26 $3,052 −$3,000 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexandre Muller vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $206 −$200 -97%
Counter-Strike: Favbet vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stage May 08 $2,959 −$2,957 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 28 $1,389 −$1,361 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) Apr 28 $513 −$500 -97%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) Apr 19 $2,108 +$2,166 +103%
Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Spirit (+2.5) Apr 19 $1,750 +$4,651 +266%
Will Falcons win IEM Rio 2026? Apr 19 $205 −$205 -100%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Apr 19 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $691 −$691 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $1,518 −$1,518 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Apr 19 $2,569 −$2,569 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 19 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Apr 19 $750 −$750 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 19 $1,132 +$1,399 +124%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $1,524 −$1,524 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Apr 18 $2,500 +$3,456 +138%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Apr 18 $1,500 +$1,470 +98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Apr 17 $1,000 +$701 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 17 $2,000 +$1,290 +64%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Apr 16 $1,500 +$1,107 +74%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Apr 15 $4,911 +$2,339 +48%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $3,763 +$2,922 +78%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 15 $924 +$2,550 +276%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Apr 14 $177 −$177 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) Apr 13 $1,000 +$674 +67%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs 3DMAX (+1.5) Apr 13 $1,357 +$2,297 +169%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Apr 13 $1,000 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 13 $1,000 +$132 +13%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou Apr 13 $1,250 −$799 -64%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Apr 13 $3,000 −$2,256 -75%
Will PARIVISION win PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026? Apr 13 $157 −$157 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 13 $400 −$400 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 30¢ $479 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 38¢ $509 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 39¢ $509 1h
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 5¢ $48 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 24¢ $39 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 24¢ $451 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 31¢ $949 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 37¢ $32 13d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 30¢ $459 15d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 59¢ $1,012 15d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $1,490 15d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FUT Esports 64¢ $170 15d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FUT Esports 65¢ $808 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $749 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $260 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $488 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 39¢ $427 20d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $428 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 38¢ $371 20d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,827 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,521 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1,610 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Diane Parry 51¢ $235 22d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,028 22d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,026 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic SELL Joao Fonseca 41¢ $2,618 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 14¢ $513 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 35¢ $1,019 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Pablo Carreno Busta 57¢ $497 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame BUY Moise Kouame 43¢ $474 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,145.86 · official $1,145.86 (match) · 984 history records