Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CD 0xcd87…c82f crypto 1569 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$470 (+2%) realized +$470 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%947W / 601L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days+$54
14 days+$332
30 days+$426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$459
politics 1% +$26
sports 0% +$9
other 0% +$3
tech 0% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 214 +2.9% -6.9% 67% 65% -7.4%
≤30d 633 +0.0% -9.5% 61% 57% -3.7%
≤90d 961 -1.5% -10.8% 60% 56% -5.6%
all 1548 -1.7% -11.1% 61% 57% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 57% -7.2%
10% -19.6% 51% -16.1%
15% -27.3% 38% -24.2%
20% -34.5% 29% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$470
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses947 / 601
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1548 / 1569
History coverage189d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1548 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 51¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-47%)
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 1¢ 49¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4640%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $22 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$8 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $7 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $7 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $17 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$6 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$4 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$9 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$10 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$20 +945%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$10 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$14 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$7 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 1¢ $0 45m
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 96¢ $4 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL No 4¢ $1 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL No 4¢ $1 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 10¢ $5 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL No 9¢ $4 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL No 12¢ $0 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL No 21¢ $10 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 35¢ $18 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 37¢ $18 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL No 39¢ $19 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 46¢ $23 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL No 47¢ $35 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 48¢ $24 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 48¢ $2 2h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 48¢ $10 2h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 49¢ $24 3h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 51¢ $23 3h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 51¢ $3 4h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL No 47¢ $25 4h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 49¢ $16 4h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 49¢ $24 6h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 51¢ $26 6h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 47¢ $7 13h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 51¢ $25 16h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 51¢ $26 16h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 47¢ $1 17h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 51¢ $25 22h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 51¢ $26 22h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 47¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.69 · official $2.21 (match) · 3389 history records