Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:00:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CD 0xcd87…df1f crypto 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate71%57W / 23L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$742
7 days+$742
14 days+$742
30 days+$742
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$598
sports 4% +$8
other 1% −$70
weather 1% −$39
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +25.2% +13.3% 75% 75% +19.7%
≤30d 20 +25.2% +13.3% 75% 75% +19.7%
≤90d 20 +25.2% +13.3% 75% 75% +19.7%
all 80 +0.3% -9.3% 71% 55% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 55% -2.4%
10% -18.0% 31% -11.7%
15% -25.9% 18% -20.2%
20% -33.1% 14% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$37 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses57 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage126d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $203 +$41 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$107 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $108 +$76 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $107 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$113 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $39 +$27 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$140 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$77 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $208 +$35 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $305 −$21 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$35 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $102 −$77 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $81 +$37 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $110 +$16 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $205 +$93 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 01 $272 −$272 -100%
Rockets vs. Heat Mar 01 $100 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Feb 28 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Feb 28 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Feb 28 $110 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Feb 28 $100 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Feb 28 $321 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Feb 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Feb 28 $300 +$20 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Feb 28 $240 +$78 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Feb 28 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 28 $20 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Feb 28 $73 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Feb 28 $100 +$19 +18%
Women's Knockout - Switzerland vs. Sweden Feb 28 $7 −$7 -100%
SHL: Skellefteaa vs. Leksands IF Feb 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Rio Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ignacio Buse Feb 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Walton (+1.5) Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Feb 28 $159 −$103 -65%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 28 $94 −$70 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 39°F or below on February 1 Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Feb 28 $170 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 28 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Feb 28 $75 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Feb 28 $100 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Feb 28 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Feb 28 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 28 $141 +$15 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Feb 28 $156 +$9 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $114 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $210 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $243 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $137 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $55 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $9 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 204 history records