Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:36:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd88…f890 other 261 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$89 (-0%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 254L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$25
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$39
sports 24% −$20
politics 8% −$9
crypto 7% −$7
economics 7% −$5
culture 6% −$6
world 2% −$15
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 184 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 261 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 254
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)261 / 261
History coverage140d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 261 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 23 $109 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 23 $791 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $192 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $436 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 22 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $416 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $278 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $426 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $220 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $346 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $645 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $184 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $201 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $402 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $110 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $106 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $169 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $100 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $467 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $318 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $518 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 15 $324 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $388 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $298 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $277 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $189 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $261 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $170 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $285 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $133 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 4m
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 2h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $49 3h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $49 5h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $49 18h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $49 19h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 28h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 34h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 35h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 36h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 38h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 40h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 41h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 43h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 44h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 46h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 47h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1416 history records