Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd8a…ce3f crypto 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$115 (-8%) realized −$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%37W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day104.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -1.9% -11.3% 51% 49% -16.7%
≤30d 73 -1.9% -11.3% 51% 49% -16.7%
≤90d 73 -1.9% -11.3% 51% 49% -16.7%
all 73 -1.9% -11.3% 51% 49% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 49% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 49% -24.7%
15% -27.5% 48% -32.0%
20% -34.6% 45% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$19 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses37 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage3d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day104.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$15 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$13 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 26 $48 +$47 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$14 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$14 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $34 +$11 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$14 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$15 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$36 +138%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$8 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$19 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 26 $39 +$30 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $23 +$16 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$6 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 26 $14 −$14 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$9 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$24 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$24 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $12 +$11 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $18 −$11 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 24 $12 +$5 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$6 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$14 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$9 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 24 $13 −$12 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$6 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$12 +195%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +135%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$3 -77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$18 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $41 −$36 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$45 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$29 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$17 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $96 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $48 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 290 history records