Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:51:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcd8a…2765 crypto 416 markets active 2d ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$33 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate91%370W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$244
14 days−$271
30 days−$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% +$165
other 28% −$216
world 15% +$38
sports 9% −$38
finance 8% −$18
politics 4% +$23
culture 2% +$8
tech 1% +$7
economics 1% −$26
weather 0% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -38.2% -44.1% 60% 0% -66.8%
≤30d 14 -26.5% -33.5% 64% 0% -48.1%
≤90d 314 -2.0% -11.3% 89% 3% -10.4%
all 408 -1.1% -10.6% 91% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 3% -10.0%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$320
Realized+$33
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses370 / 38
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)408 / 416
History coverage119d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 408 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 98¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 98¢ 99¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 98¢ 99¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Eminem perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 97¢ 96¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anuel AA perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 96¢ 96¢ $38 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 98¢ 92¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No 92¢ 87¢ $37 $36 −$2 (-5%)
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 98¢ 54¢ $37 $20 −$17 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Will George Walsh be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? Jun 18 $39 +$2 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 −$202 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 01 $40 +$2 +4%
Will RED Canids win CBLOL 2026 Split 1? Jun 01 $38 +$3 +7%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 01 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04? May 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Conservative People’s Party be part of the next Government of Den May 29 $38 +$2 +4%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $29 +$1 +2%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? May 20 $38 $0 +1%
Will Latonya Reeves be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? May 20 $36 $0 +1%
Will Hasbro (HAS) beat quarterly earnings? May 19 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026? May 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Governme May 17 $39 $0 +1%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Amy Phan West advance from the CA-45 primary election? May 16 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Sam Bregman win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary e May 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nat May 13 $38 +$5 +12%
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government May 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $28 +$3 +11%
Will Rodez AF achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-2 May 12 $27 $0 +1%
Will New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi) be part of the next Gove May 12 $39 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, May 10 $40 +$1 +3%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April? May 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 10 $38 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will BW Industrial Holdings not IPO before June 2026? May 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NB May 09 $26 $0 +2%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele May 08 $34 +$6 +18%
Will Carolina Hurricanes advance to the Conference Finals of the 2026 May 08 $29 +$1 +2%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 08 $55 +$3 +5%
Will Encore Medical’s market cap be between $45M and $50M at market cl May 08 $37 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? May 07 $30 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? May 07 $28 +$1 +2%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 07 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $84 in May? May 06 $40 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 06 $47 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? May 06 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori end in a draw? May 06 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 4-10? May 06 $27 +$3 +13%
Will Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC end in a draw? May 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre end in a draw? May 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Nara Club vs. FC Ōsaka end in a draw? May 06 $39 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $49 41h
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $49 43h
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $49 44h
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will George Walsh be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? SELL No 100¢ $41 2d
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 6d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 96¢ $45 7d
Will Anuel AA perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? SELL No 99¢ $2 15d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 16d
Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark? SELL No 100¢ $42 18d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $3 19d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $1 19d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $5 19d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $9 19d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $5 19d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $12 19d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $1 19d
Will Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04? SELL No 91¢ $28 20d
Will Conservative People’s Party be part of the next Government of Den SELL No 96¢ $40 21d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $30 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $16 30d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $39 31d
Will Latonya Reeves be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? SELL No 90¢ $37 31d
Will Hasbro (HAS) beat quarterly earnings? SELL Yes 96¢ $39 32d
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Governme SELL Yes 95¢ $39 34d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 34d
Will Amy Phan West advance from the CA-45 primary election? SELL No 98¢ $41 34d
Will Sam Bregman win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary e SELL No 91¢ $37 37d
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nat SELL No 94¢ $8 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $320.38 · official $320.38 (match) · 1177 history records