Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:29:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd8c…35ab other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 708d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized +$377 · open −$383
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate64%28W / 16L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$425now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$82
14 days+$82
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$314
sports 13% −$9
crypto 0% −$2
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-36.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +3.4% -6.5% 100% 0% -6.2%
≤30d 24 +3.4% -6.5% 100% 0% -6.2%
≤90d 28 -11.4% -19.8% 86% 0% -7.1%
all 44 -29.7% -36.4% 64% 9% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.4% 9% -7.4%
10% -42.5% 7% -16.2%
15% -48.0% 2% -24.3%
20% -53.1% 2% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

708d coverage
Net worth$425
Realized+$377
Unrealized−$383
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses28 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage708d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ assists No 95¢ 50¢ $808 $425 −$383 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chemsdine Talbi: 2+ goals Jun 25 $857 +$43 +5%
Amar Memić: 2+ assists Jun 24 $48 +$2 +4%
Esmir Bajraktarević: 2+ goals Jun 24 $47 +$3 +6%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $50 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Jonathan David: 2+ assists Jun 24 $684 +$16 +2%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $49 +$1 +2%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $47 +$3 +6%
Set 1 Winner: Smith vs Echargui Jun 24 $47 +$3 +7%
James Rodríguez: 2+ assists Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $31 +$1 +3%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $65 +$1 +1%
Ibrahim Maza: 2+ goals Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 24 $20 $0 +2%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 24 $19 +$1 +4%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $20 $0 +2%
Amine Gouiri: 2+ assists Jun 24 $22 $0 +1%
Gaubas vs. Mmoh: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Herbert vs. Jubb: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Draxl vs. Bertola: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $19 +$1 +3%
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) Jun 22 $23 +$1 +3%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 22 $3 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs M80 (BO3) Apr 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Esperance de Tunis win the FIFA Club World Cup? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Mar 06 $8 +$4 +52%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump be Speaker by January 1? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana above $200 on November 15? Nov 29 $1 $0 +14%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by October 31? Nov 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a Republican win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? Nov 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Nov 13 $1 $0 +28%
Trump flips Kamala on 538 before October? Oct 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Harris debate before election? Sep 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Pavel Durov flees France by Sep 15? Sep 29 $1 −$1 -100%
$BTC dips below $45k before September? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 05 $1 $0 -10%
No Solana all time high in 2024? Aug 05 $3 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Chemsdine Talbi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 5h
Chemsdine Talbi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 5h
Chemsdine Talbi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 5h
Chemsdine Talbi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 5h
Chemsdine Talbi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 5h
Chemsdine Talbi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 5h
Chemsdine Talbi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 5h
Chemsdine Talbi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 5h
Chemsdine Talbi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 5h
Chemsdine Talbi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 5h
Chemsdine Talbi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 5h
Chemsdine Talbi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 5h
Chemsdine Talbi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $425.00 · official $425.00 (match) · 138 history records