Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:41:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd8c…47c2 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% $0
other 31% −$3
politics 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -0.8% -10.2% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.8% -10.2% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 32 +0.3% -9.3% 41% 6% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 6% -10.0%
10% -18.0% 3% -18.6%
15% -25.9% 3% -26.5%
20% -33.2% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage464d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 27 $48 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $33 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $43 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $8 −$1 -9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $49 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 12 $7 +$4 +55%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $7 $0 +0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $1 $0 +4%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 03 $7 $0 +1%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 10 $5 $0 -1%
Starmer out before July? May 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 10 $13 −$6 -50%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 08 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 07 $17 −$2 -14%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Mar 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 30 $12 $0 -1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 27 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $14 +$2 +13%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $3 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 10h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $24 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $24 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $48 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $39 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $9 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $48 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $34 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $33 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $14 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $36 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $13 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $48 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $31 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $18 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $49 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $1 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.70 · official $47.70 (match) · 87 history records