Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:11:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CD 0xcd8c…b750 crypto 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,027 (+13%) realized +$9,273 · open −$246
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%31W / 72L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$655per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$5,599now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14,697
7 days+$12,755
14 days+$12,755
30 days+$11,796
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$8,773
other 28% +$13,565
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -5.3% -14.3% 33% 33% +19.9%
≤30d 80 -11.4% -19.9% 31% 31% +17.7%
≤90d 103 -19.7% -27.4% 30% 29% +1.3%
all 103 -19.7% -27.4% 30% 29% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.4% 29% +1.3%
10% ← realistic here -34.3% 26% -8.4%
15% -40.7% 24% -17.3%
20% -46.5% 21% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$974) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -48% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,321 vs −$499 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$5,599
Realized+$9,273
Unrealized−$246
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses31 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)103 / 107
History coverage30d
Avg bet$655
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2,436 $2,342 −$94 (-4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1,463 $1,420 −$43 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $974 $925 −$49 (-5%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $973 $912 −$61 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $95 −$90 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $1,204 −$1,161 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $195 −$188 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1,503 −$1,141 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1,001 +$248 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $501 +$1,224 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $700 +$489 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $571 +$181 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $1,004 −$863 -86%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1,000 −$976 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1,000 −$975 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1,500 +$7,753 +517%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1,500 +$1,880 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $502 −$479 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $501 −$485 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $501 +$938 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $501 −$484 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $401 −$390 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1,020 −$997 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1,000 −$974 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $512 +$96 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $503 −$477 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $500 +$584 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $501 +$574 +114%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $500 −$487 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $1,500 −$1,461 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,100 +$13,145 +1195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $244 −$233 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $200 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $2,005 −$1,945 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $500 −$356 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $4,102 −$887 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1,903 +$787 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1,206 +$688 +57%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,500 −$1,462 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2,003 −$1,291 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1,004 −$838 -83%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,000 −$973 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1,004 +$2,033 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1,001 +$580 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1,191 +$2,650 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $200 −$190 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $641 +$744 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $501 −$450 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $419 +$709 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $425 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$94 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $90 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $809 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $396 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $195 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $537 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $465 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $279 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $500 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,250 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1,001 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,725 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $501 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,190 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $700 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $752 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $501 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,000 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,000 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,000 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $543 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $461 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,500 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,500 2h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,000 11h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,000 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 64¢ $9,253 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 35¢ $3,380 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,599.46 · official $5,599.46 (match) · 260 history records