Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CD 0xcd8e…435c crypto 1798 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (256 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$232 (-7%) realized −$229 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%396W / 560L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day255.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$250
7 days+$348
14 days+$1,137
30 days+$1,137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$1,116
other 5% +$11
sports 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (256 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 377 +39.7% +26.4% 41% 33% +23.1%
≤30d 956 +60.9% +45.6% 41% 38% +38.7%
≤90d 956 +60.9% +45.6% 41% 38% +38.7%
all 956 +60.9% +45.6% 41% 38% +38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover255.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +45.6% 38% +38.7%
10% ← realistic here +31.6% 37% +25.5%
15% +18.9% 36% +13.3%
20% +7.3% 36% +2.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +72% → late +50% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×3.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$229
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses396 / 560
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)956 / 1798
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day255.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 956 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 30¢ $87 $66 −$21 (-24%)
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 68¢ $21 $39 +$18 (+86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$2 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.54 · official $106.12 (match) · 3500 history records