Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CD 0xcd8f…1c8e world 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$44 (+28%) realized +$46 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$46
14 days+$46
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$19
crypto 48% +$47
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 50% +39.9%
≤30d 4 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 50% +39.9%
≤90d 4 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 50% +39.9%
all 4 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 50% +39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 50% +39.9%
10% -17.0% 50% +26.5%
15% -25.0% 25% +14.3%
20% -32.3% 25% +3.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$1 · ×43.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×43.79 per $1 lost it wins $43.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 51¢ 24¢ $31 $14 −$17 (-54%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-91%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$38 +73%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.76 · official $51.76 (match) · 18 history records