Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:03:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

CD 0xcd8f…f877 other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$3 (+4%) realized +$3 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+0.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+11.4%	+0.8%	100%	100%	+0.8%
≤30d	1	+11.4%	+0.8%	100%	100%	+0.8%
≤90d	1	+11.4%	+0.8%	100%	100%	+0.8%
all	1	+11.4%	+0.8%	100%	100%	+0.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+0.8%	100%	+0.8%
10%	-8.9%	0%	-8.9%
15%	-17.7%	0%	-17.7%
20%	-25.8%	0%	-25.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$68

Realized+$3

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions7

Markets (closed)1 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	56¢	56¢	$26	$26	−$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$20	$20	+$0 (+0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	29¢	34¢	$10	$12	+$2 (+19%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+20%)
Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$5	$3	−$2 (-44%)
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	Yes	22¢	22¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-2%)
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-20%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26?	Jun 26	$10	+$1	+11%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	22¢	$1	3m
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026	BUY Yes	56¢	$26	1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26?	SELL Yes	27¢	$12	4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	12h
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	12h
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	12h
Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	12h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	29¢	$10	13h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	64¢	$20	13h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.28 · official $68.28 (match) · 9 history records