Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CD
0xcd91…32b8
other · 529 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$38,506 -29%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22,258 · open −$32,722
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,000
Realized−$22,258
Unrealized−$32,722
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses19 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions498
Markets (closed)53 / 529
History coverage1d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day2752.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 498 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22,258
7 days−$22,258
14 days−$22,258
30 days−$22,258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $317 $339 +$23 (+7%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on IPO day? No 100¢ 99¢ $327 $326 −$1 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? No 99¢ 99¢ $325 $326 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day? No 99¢ 99¢ $326 $324 −$2 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day? No 99¢ 98¢ $324 $322 −$2 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day? No 92¢ 93¢ $301 $305 +$4 (+1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? No 91¢ 90¢ $306 $304 −$1 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No 83¢ 87¢ $272 $285 +$13 (+5%)
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada? No 66¢ 68¢ $223 $229 +$7 (+3%)
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 41¢ 40¢ $139 $133 −$7 (-5%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $267 $132 −$134 (-50%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $300 $120 −$180 (-60%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? No 96¢ 98¢ $112 $114 +$2 (+2%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? No 95¢ 88¢ $111 $102 −$8 (-8%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? No 86¢ 87¢ $101 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No 27¢ 24¢ $87 $80 −$7 (-8%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100? No 100¢ 100¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mike Maignan record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 16¢ $4 $62 +$59 (+1677%)
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 97¢ 97¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Morocco to win the second half? No 85¢ 84¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? No 94¢ 97¢ $49 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? No 78¢ 78¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $45 +$35 (+319%)
Will Diogo Costa record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 12¢ $3 $43 +$40 (+1263%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 12 $0 +$5 +8732%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $2,094 −$1,857 -89%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1,021 −$698 -68%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $36 −$34 -97%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $1,163 −$1,162 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $86 −$85 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -4%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $2,296 −$2,027 -88%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $2,281 −$2,247 -98%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $2,285 −$2,276 -100%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $1,637 −$1,570 -96%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $1,238 −$1,235 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 Jun 12 $813 −$781 -96%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Jun 12 $86 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $847 −$726 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $603 −$602 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $2,497 −$2,347 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,785 −$545 -30%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,799 −$633 -35%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,759 −$989 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$2 +5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $261 −$200 -76%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $118 −$106 -90%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Jun 12 $206 −$100 -49%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Jun 12 $102 −$101 -100%
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Jun 12 $21 +$11 +54%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 12 $213 −$179 -84%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 11 $22 +$7 +30%
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 11 $88 +$30 +33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $31 +$16 +52%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $98 −$22 -23%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 11 $59 +$25 +43%
Will Austria be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 11 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1,517 −$1,467 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 +43%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 11 $11 −$7 -61%
South Africa to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 11 $94 +$25 +26%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? Jun 11 $96 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? Jun 11 $43 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 11 $83 +$1 +1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $58 +$7 +12%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $93 +$15 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $47 −$44 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$6 -60%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $57 −$57 -99%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 58% −$43,081
politics 12% −$2,391
tech 11% −$2,552
sports 8% −$5,689
world 4% −$470
culture 3% −$760
weather 2% −$41
finance 2% −$1
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? BUY No 98¢ $73 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 80¢ $60 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 39¢ $29 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 99¢ $73 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 97¢ $72 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY No 97¢ $72 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 88¢ $65 4m
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? BUY No 90¢ $34 5m
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 40¢ $16 5m
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada? BUY No 68¢ $26 5m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 41¢ $63 5m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 86¢ $128 5m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 99¢ $148 5m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY No 97¢ $144 5m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 97¢ $145 5m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 80¢ $120 5m
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? BUY No 98¢ $146 5m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 80¢ $27 6m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 87¢ $29 6m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 97¢ $32 6m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 99¢ $33 6m
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? BUY No 98¢ $33 6m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY No 97¢ $32 6m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 40¢ $13 6m
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $14 6m
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $14 6m
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $6 6m
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $9 6m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 80¢ $63 10m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 87¢ $68 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -7.9% -16.7% 36% 19% -81.1%
≤30d 53 -7.9% -16.7% 36% 19% -81.1%
≤90d 53 -7.9% -16.7% 36% 19% -81.1%
all 53 -7.9% -16.7% 36% 19% -81.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2752.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 19% -81.1%
10% -24.7% 15% -82.9%
15% ← realistic here -31.9% 9% -84.6%
20% -38.6% 6% -86.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,999.83 · official $6,014.49 (match) · 3500 history records